Most of us are not raising top-level athletes. The numbers tell us parents that only 1% of participating athletes play after high school.
Our kids might be damn good, even have, in our assessment, the ability to play their sport of choice at a collegiate level – mostly lower levels like DII, DIII, NAIA, or at a Junior College – but not the tippy-top that play on Saturdays in Tuscaloosa or Gainesville. DI programs in all sports are reserved for elite level athletes only. Good players need not apply.
This also means that, in the “new world” of big money NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals for college athletes, LSU Olivia Dunne’s $3.5 million brand valuation will not impact our kids at all.
Ignoring the NIL going’s on at the top level, though, for parents of “good” athletes is not a good idea. NIL, unquestionably, will have an impact on high school athletes looking at their college options to continue playing – even at lower levels.
There is so much still up in the air as it relates to the impact of the opportunity of college athletes to make money – it’s the “Wild West” at the moment. In the midst of this chaos, though, a few things seem certain:
(1) the NCAA’s free leverage over athletes is DONE, and,
(2) impacts of the top-paying college sports will force changes on the non-revenue sports at universities at all levels
At a recent roundtable of legal, social, and industry experts hosted by The Aspen Institute, several alternative models of the NCAA dealing with NIL were explored. While none of these ideas may directly address our “good” kid/athletes – who will be thrilled to be paying their way at a DII or NAIA college in order to play – there will be rippling impacts each parent should be watching for.
NIL Trend to Watch #1:
Professionalized NCAA Football and Men’s Basketball
A difference will likely have to draw a line between the two college sports (football and men’s basketball) that provide profits versus those that do not (all woman’s sports, gymnastics, baseball, etc).
This will happen – because athlete NIL compensation will follow.
How universities’ will be allowed to manage this change is TBD. If you cannot get your head around the idea, imagine Michigan Football as an on-campus Wendy’s at the Student Union. That is essentially the “professionalized” model.
This “PRO model” is the best outcome for elite athletes at powerful schools but could be catastrophic for every other athletes at a DI school. Universities could lose the ability to take football profits to fund their other sports.
The most likely middle ground to losing profits in full from football and basketball will be a model that professionalizes these revenue-generating with a profit-sharing agreement that provides available funds to support non-revenue generating athletes. This allows elite pay for elite college athletes without jeopardizing the rest of the school’s athletic programs. This model assumes, though, that the name/branding of the university provides enough leverage for a professional franchise to cut into a large share of its profits to represent the Wolverines or Gators on the field.
If/when football and men’s basketball are professionalized, universities will respond in ways that will reverberate though all collegiate sports at all levels. Parents should be watching.
NIL Trend to Watch #2:
Employees or Not?
Have you heard about the attempt of Dartmouth Men’s Basketball players to unionize as employees of the university? If not, parents should check out what these smart kids are doing in the Ivy League. The impact of what they are doing could help determine if/when student-athletes become employees of the university they are attending. That is a big deal.
There are binary solutions that seem to be eminent: (1) athletes are deemed school employees (and, if/when unionized, will collectively bargain), or (2) students are not deemed employees and have no allegiance to any school, sport, or season – they are a perpetual free agents.
The topic is so interesting for a variety of reasons, but, most importantly to parents, is that two issues come up during these discussions that will impact our “good” athletes.
First, is the usage of “preferential admissions” as compensation for student-athletes is weaved into the argument. If admission advantages are disbanded for athletes – because they could be used to hamper a player’s non-employee status, they are held to the same standards as all other university students for admission. Note: this loophole will likely be attacked after the race-based preferred admissions policies were deemed illegal over the last year. Based on the average GPA’s I’ve seen from my son trying to get into Florida State or the University of Florida, without preferred admission, these two might be the smartest football teams in the nation! 🙂 But, would they win?
Next, if university athletes are not employees, sports cannot, by law, exhibit excess control on an athlete’s schedule or impose grade requirements to stay eligible. This may lead to a “club sport” model all sports – where athletes manage their own activities, book their own games, hire their coaches, and travel as they are able.
Could this be a great thing for “good” players?
Maybe. :/
This could open up more opportunities for players to continue playing on their own dollar at a university that makes sense. It might, though, make it difficult to have access to facilities, top-notch coaching, and result in regional play that is not as sexy for potential participants. The perks go away until athletes can pay for them.
Whether our kids are D1 capable or not, they will be soon deemed employees or not – at all levels. Parents take note.
NIL Trend to Watch #3:
Elite Development Pathways
No matter where your kids play, you’ve no doubt experienced an “A-team” versus everyone else in the program mentality in youth sports. The top team gets the best coaches, the best fields, plays in the most prestigious tournaments, and, overall, is used to raise the profile of the entire program.
While the MLS has been lauded for the management of their elite player pipeline in the US, the results it has delivered to date are uncertain. All logical minds can (probably) agree that US soccer is in a much better spot than it had been before. This, anecdotally at least, is proof that a pro-controlled, top-down elite player development pipeline is the way of the future for all sports.
This trend will be important for parents of “good” athletes, too.
Financially, the elite teams will require support from the entire club to build the biggest and best program. So, even if your kid is not on the “elite” team, you’ll be paying as if they were.
Additionally, the importance of being identified as a top talent worthy of an elite program will be happening earlier and earlier. This, I fear, will have “for fun only” rec leagues for six-year-olds having a tough time drawing the numbers needed to have a decent product that helps build self-esteem in our little ones. Those programs introduce concepts our communities benefit from like sportsmanship, teamwork, and having fun through physical activities.
Lastly, if the resource allocations are skewed significantly toward the top teams, the gap between them and the good-to-really-good players will grow. This will be discouraging to kids who are not ID’d very early during their time on the field, ice, or pitch. If you’re not great at seven, do you have a chance?
All-in-all, I’m not watching the action around the NIL developments impacting intercollegiate athletics because I’m looking forward to my little ballers making a bunch of money playing the sport them love. No, I’m watching for the opposite reason – that the lower levels of sports will change as a result of the actions at the top.
I’m sure of that – the head wags the tail in sports.
How might youth sports change for good to very good athletes?
Well, we’ll have to wait and see. Rest assured, sports parents will be watching.
